REGULATION,IMPERFECT COMPETITION,AND THE U.S. ABORTION MARKET

The U.S. abortion market has grown increasingly concentrated recently, while many states tightened abortion laws. Using data on abortion providers, I estimate an equilibrium model of demand, price competition, entry and exit, to capture the effect of regulation on industry dynamics. Estimates show regulations played an important role in determining the abortion market structure and evolution. Counterfactual simulations reveal increases in demand‐aimed regulation were the most important observed factor in explaining recent abortion declines. Simulating Utah's regulatory regime nationally shows tightening abortion restrictions can increase abortions in equilibrium, mainly through tilting the competitive landscape toward low‐price providers.     

On the Sources of Inflation in Kenya: A Model‐Based Approach

We develop a semi‐structural new‐Keynesian open‐economy model – with separate food and non‐food inflation dynamics to study the sources of inflation in Kenya in recent years. To do so, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) through the model to recover a model‐based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary movements (or gaps) – including for the international and domestic relative price of food. We use the filtration exercise to recover the sequence of domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks that account for business cycle dynamics in Kenya over the last few years, with a special emphasis on the various factors (international food prices, monetary policy) driving inflation. We find that while imported food price shocks have been an important source of inflation, both in 2008 and more recently, accommodating monetary policy has also played a role, most notably through its effect on the nominal exchange rate. We also discuss the implications of this exercise for the use of model‐based monetary policy analysis in sub‐Saharan African countries.     

Formalising Workflow: A CCS-inspired Characterisation of the YAWL Workflow Patterns

We present work concerning the formal specification of business processes. It is of substantial benefit to be able to pin down the meaning of business processes precisely. This is an end in itself, but we are also concerned to do so in order that we might prove properties about the business processes that are being specified. It is a notable characteristic of most languages for representing business processes that they lack a robust semantics, and a notable characteristic of most commercial Business Process Management products that they have no support for verification of business process models. We define a high-level meta-model, called Liesbet , for representing business processes. The ontological commitments for Liesbet are sourced from the YAWL workflow patterns, which have been defined from studies into the behavioural nature of business processes. A formal characterisation of Liesbet is provided using Milner’s Calculus of Communicating Systems (CCS). In this article, we omit some of the technical details of this characterisation and instead present the essential features by means of an abstract machine language, called LCCS. We also explain how we have facilitated the verification of certain properties of business processes specified in Liesbet , and discuss how Liesbet supports the YAWL workflow patterns. We include a simple three-part example of using Liesbet .     

The Global Market for Agricultural Machinery and Equipment

Growth in the current-dollar sales of agricultural machinery and equipment was almost six percent per annum during 2000-2005.1 This was much faster than the 2.6 percent growth for agricultural output and the 1.2 percent rate for population in the same period. JEL Classification L64     

Job Creation by the Self-employed: The Roles of Entrepreneurial and Financial Capital

The paper reports micro-econometric evidence on the factors that influence the ability of the small businesses to create employment. It uses data on self-employment from a British panel survey. In particular it investigates the contributions of financial and entrepreneurial capital to job creation. Housing wealth appears to be significantly associated with small business job creation. It appears to act as an important source of financial collateral. The parental background of the small business owner is also significantly associated with job creation. Successful entrepreneurs are more likely to have had self-employed parents, and in particular parents who employed others. Educational attainment, in particular at degree level, is also important. The preferred model incorporates individual random effects and the significance of these suggests the importance of unobserved latent entrepreneurial ability. The British Household Panel Survey data used in this paper were made available through the ESRC Data Archive. The data were originally collected by the ESRC Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Essex. Neither the original collector of the data nor the Archive bears any responsibility for the analyses or interpretations presented here. I am grateful to Reza Arabsheibani for helpful comments at a preliminary stage, and to seminar participants at the Welsh Assembly Government, Cardiff.     

The Impact of the Interaction of Utilitarian and Informational Reinforcement and Behavior Setting Scope on Consumer Response

The influence of the environment on the emotional responses and behaviors of consumers has been well established in the consumer behavior literature. The Behavioral Perspective Model (BPM) assumes that utilitarian reinforcement, informational reinforcement, and consumer behavior setting scope are independent dimensions of environmental influence, which can combine in particular consumption situations to produce consumer behavior. This paper empirically examines the possibility of interactions among these dimensions by means of the pleasure, arousal, and dominance (PAD) emotional variables. The PAD variables have been shown to mediate consumer behaviors such as the desire to stay or escape from the setting, to affiliate with others, and the willingness to spend money and consume. The results, showing an interaction between pleasure and arousal in high‐pleasure environments, which then leads to increased approach behavior, seem to confirm the synergistic effects of utilitarian reinforcement and informational reinforcement on behavior. This study appears to be the first to find and investigate a three‐way interaction between pleasure, arousal, and dominance in the context of purchase and consumption. This interaction suggests that the three structural dimensions of the BPM combine to produce consumer behavior. It also highlights the important role of consumer behavior setting scope in consumer situations maintained by intermediate patterns of reinforcement. The implications of these findings for theory and marketing management are discussed.     

Contents of PMM,Volume 29 (2009)

This article appraises the recent UK quantitative easing (QE) monetary experiment. From March 2009 to February 2010, the Bank of England spent £200 billion on gilts and corporate bonds. This experiment represents, as a proportion of GDP, the most ambitious monetary policy ‘mission’ in history. Using several indicators to examine the impact of QE, our analysis leads to a conclusion which, metaphorically, is akin to that ascribed to the 1970 Apollo 13 Moon mission: a ‘successful failure’.